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Jesus I despise Brexit.
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grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Edited Oct 10, 2018, 11:50
Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Oct 10, 2018, 11:49
I suspect it's not going to happen. There's talk that the EU will find a way to extend Article 50 until the end of May (when the EU parliamentary elections are held). But it's less to do with extending negotiations as it is about giving the UK enough time to hold a second referendum.

It's becoming apparent that -- no matter what deal Theresa May brings back from Brussels -- in all likelihood it will fail to pass the required UK parliamentary vote. That's purely down to the current state of UK politics and the "confidence & supply" agreement with the DUP. And while it's not guaranteed of course, the EU are aware there's a high chance of the UK having a General Election, a Tory Leadership contest, or a 2nd referendum (maybe all three!) in the next few months... and nobody wants to see the UK crash out with no deal just because internal tory chaos leaves the country without an effective government.

Extending Article 50 beyond May will present all sorts of legal challenges, but an extra couple of months should be enough for a change of government in Westminster and another referendum to cancel the whole thing. That's the thinking anyway.

The only alternatives at this stage are an almighty fudge or a crash out. In the fudge; the UK essentially remains a member in everything but name, staying within the jurisdiction of the ECJ and retaining access to the Customs Union (but without any say in how they're run and no representation at EU level). Oddly enough this would be acceptable to the DUP as it would prevent a differentiation between Northern Ireland and GB, but would not be acceptable to the tory right.

A crash out would be an unmitigated disaster. The vast majority of people now understand this. If it happens, it'll be by mistake I think.
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