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Labour to win? Surely not...
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Re: Labour to win? Surely not...
Jun 09, 2017, 19:03
Well, that was a giddy few hours.

Too knackered to be coherent (no change) but some immediately positive things from my perspective:

- Record number of women MPs elected
- Huge young voter turnout showing a politically engaged age group who have woken up to the fact that their vote matters and can make a difference. I reckon EU ref was the slap in the face they needed to wake them up
- Affirmation by a large percentage of the electorate, not just Labour Party membership, of Corbyn's leadership and vision
- A great swathe of the electorate rejected the Murdoch-led politics of hate and fear and chose instead to vote for a campaign that was based on policy and hope rather than vague threats and personal attacks on the opponents
- An end to Blairite centrism in the Labour Party (hopefully)
- The greatly reduced mandate for a hard "Brexit at any price"
- UKIP are extinct
- Unlikely to be a vote on bringing back fox hunting now

And some less positive things:

- We still have May (for the moment) and her cabinet of Johnson, Fallon, Rudd, Davies, Hunt, etc. She seems rather tawdry, clinging on now even though she made the election all about her and must surely take responsibility for the outcome.
- The DUP are the most bigoted, right wing, anti-LGBT people you could hope to meet outside of a Saudi arms fair (and Creationist climate-change deniers too for good measure), yet May is prepared to give them power to keep herself clinging on
- We were so close to the numbers needed for a broad left coalition. Again my constituency let me down by voting for a Tory, but he had less votes than the combined LD/Labour votes (not even including 900 Green votes). FPTP sucks.
-WTF happened in Scotland? Kezia Dugdale should resign for urging voters to vote Tory. She may have done a lot there to keep Labour out of a potential coalition - those seats the Tories took from the SNP in Scotland were crucial to the overall numbers.

What's next? The Tories are certainly not dead, that's for sure. A different leader, a different manifesto (especially one that sees them back away from the "dementia tax" threat) could probably see them back in with a majority. But on the other hand, a concerted effort by the left-leaning parties could see them locked out.

A coalition with the DUP seems to be everyone's least preferred option (probably even quite a lot of Tory MPs won't be happy). But the irony of a Tory smear campaign based on criticising Corbyn's supposed links with terrorists ending up with them cosying up with the DUP (UVF) is beyond parody.

Part of me thinks there is some justice in Johnson, Davies and Fox still being left to pick up the Brexit pieces, but I still think they will be a desperately poor representation of British interests. There was always a big risk to Labour in being responsible for the negotiations, for many remainers that would be seen to pursuing a course of madness, for a vocal section of the leavers they would be criticised for being too soft. It still comes back to the point though that there was only one question on the referendum ballot, and that to assume you know what all leavers wanted because the Express/Mail told you was always going to be a high risk strategy. Not all leave voters wanted Brexit at any price, and I think that has been reflected in this election result.

Interesting times ahead. Obviously in the anything but stable world of UK politics everything I've written above will probably have been proved wrong by events by the time I press "Post Message".
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