I've just glanced back over what I wrote last night, and noticed this:
>
> So at present consumption rates, the
> long-shot that is the 49Gb (49 billion
> barrels of crude oil) under Greenland
> would sate our thirst for a shade over
> 20 months.
>
Whilst strictly true, that's actually a little misleading. Greenland's oil would be consumed by the global economy in 20 months, only if that oil were already extracted from the ground and sitting in barrels waiting to be refined.
However, because of the rate at which fields produce oil, it would take a good deal longer than 20 *years* to get to the last of those hypothetically extractable 49 billion barrels.
It's also important to factor in the approximate mid-point of a field's life: the production peak. Because to a global economy which depends for its survival on constant growth, the point at which progressively less energy is available (as opposed to the historical model of progressively more) is critical.
This is what a lot people (often economists, who willfully refuse to understand the geological constraints of oil drilling and assume that reserves are "instantly accessible" to the market) can fail to grasp. When the BP statistical review, or the USGS, or the IEA annouce that our total global reserves at current consumption rates equals another 40-60 years of oil... it's completely meaningless.
To use grossly approximated numbers; in our history, we have produced and consumed around 1 trillion barrels of oil. The likes of Campbell and Laherrere and other "peak oil" geologists estimate that there's roughly 1.2 trillion barrels of oil left to be produced (or was a couple of years back). This includes their own estimates of oil yet to be discovered (i.e. whatever might be under Greenland, or in the Arctic Reserves, or wherever).
This means, in essence, that we are approaching mid-point... well... any day now. The consequences of our capitalist, globalised economy having to cope with progressively less energy year-on-year can be debated, but I can't see how anyone could deny that the situation is approaching.
As Campbell pointed out in his presentation to the House of Commons, even if you were to suddenly discover another 500Gb of oil (50% of all the oil we've used to date!); given our current consumption rate - and given the physical extraction rate; it would only delay peak by about 10 years.
(Note: since that presentation, no 500Gb discoveries have been made - in fact everyone's been revising *down* their estimated reserves of late).
So, once again... it really is a case of learning to use less. Not discover more.
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