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Jesus I despise Brexit.
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nigelswift
8067 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 01, 2018, 20:06
Robert Peston
?Verified account @Peston
7m7 minutes ago

Close colleagues of the PM say that on “current numbers” she loses the meaningful vote by “nearly 400”. And yet @theresa_may acts and speaks as they she is not about to lose the most important battle of her life. Which begs the question what does she know that the rest of us do not? In the words of a minister “She is not talking to anyone...She is a mystery”. I wonder whether that vote will actually happen on 11 December. Some in her circle think it can’t.
nigelswift
8067 posts

Edited Dec 02, 2018, 10:03
Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 09:47
Keir Starmer says a 3 way referendum - No Deal, May, Remain is too risky as No Deal might win. So he wants the latter two. Gina Miller wants all three as it would stop the Brexiters calling foul.

Wouldn't the latter be also good decause the non-remain vote would be split, increasing the chances of Remain winning?

I'm sure that calculation has also been made by all concerned. It'll be interesting to see what happens if a 2nd referendum comes closer, Brexiters will be pushing for a referendum without more than 2 choices..... but which two? It's hell for them, no wonder they're so keen not to have a second ref.
grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 13:45
Generally a referendum will never occur with three options on the paper and the top one winning.

I'm unaware of any electoral system that uses that form of referendum. A couple of years back, I read a terribly dull and dense book about the evolution of electoral systems... turns out the majority of the different voting systems / democratic processes were developed in European monasteries in the Middle Ages who saw the ability to achieve "perfect representation" when choosing internal positions as getting "closer to God".

Actually fairly fascinating stuff... but tough to write an engaging book on!

All of which is a tangential way of saying that a referendum with more than two options is almost certain to be run in two stages.


EITHER it will be Option A:
========================================
Referendum 1: "Leave or Remain".

If "Remain" -> done.

If "Leave" -> a second referendum "Deal or No Deal"


OR MORE LIKELY it will be Option B:
=========================================
Referendum 1: "3, 4 (or more) options"

Referendum 2: run off between the top two.



Option B is by far the most common way - globally - to deal with a referendum with 3+ options. But Option A is used occasionally.

We shall see...
thesweetcheat
thesweetcheat
6103 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 13:56
The other big question if a second referendum were called is who gets to vote this time?

- 16-17 year olds (as per Scottish indie ref)
- EU Citizens living in the UK
- UK citizens living in the EU

All of these are up for (hotly disputed) discussion.
grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 14:01
My guess (just a guess now, and I'm not saying it's what I think *should* happen) is that the eligibility requirements will be identical to the first one.

I can imagine the threat of legal action by the losing side ("but the terms were deliberately changed to force a result") would hang over whatever result occurred, in the same way the campaign finances are hanging over the current one.

To avoid any possibility of that; I think they may decide to re-run using the same rules.
thesweetcheat
thesweetcheat
6103 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 14:12
grufty jim wrote:
My guess (just a guess now, and I'm not saying it's what I think *should* happen) is that the eligibility requirements will be identical to the first one.

I can imagine the threat of legal action by the losing side ("but the terms were deliberately changed to force a result") would hang over whatever result occurred, in the same way the campaign finances are hanging over the current one.

To avoid any possibility of that; I think they may decide to re-run using the same rules.


Although the converse view is that excluding those groups disenfranchises them unfairly.

As (I *think*) all sides would probably be keen to position a new referendum as "not a re-run of 2016" in order to be seen to not be disrespecting the previous vote, I suspect that there will be a lot of pushing to include more of those people who are directly affected by the outcome this time, particularly from those who would like to see a Remain outcome.

Re your other post, the other option for the two stage, three options vote would be:

Q1. Do you agree that the UK should exit on the terms already negotiated with the EU? Choose either Yes/No

Q2. (In the event of a No vote to Q1) - Should the UK exit without a deal or remain in the EU? Choose either No deal/Remain

It's riskier all round, because if no-one likes the deal on offer, it becomes a straight choice between No Deal and No Brexit (get your bets on now).
nigelswift
8067 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 14:38
I think if they now included
16-17 year olds (as per Scottish indie ref)
- EU Citizens living in the UK
- UK citizens living in the EU
.....Remain would win so there's not a chance these "democracy loving" Brexiters will agree to any of them.

Just shows, they're interested in winning, not defending democracy. And, truth to tell, so am I on this occasion. I don't mind being out voted for the rest of my life and still supporting democracy if we can just have this one.
thesweetcheat
thesweetcheat
6103 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 02, 2018, 15:24
nigelswift wrote:
Just shows, they're interested in winning, not defending democracy. And, truth to tell, so am I on this occasion.


I don't think the wish for another vote makes you undemocratic. To be a true democracy there has to be the right/ability to change your mind on reflection, greater knowledge of the consequences, or the emergence of new facts. Otherwise it's a dictatorship and we'll never need another election.
nigelswift
8067 posts

Re: Question:
Dec 03, 2018, 08:33
Blair wants Hard Brexit v Remain, for obvious reasons but Brexiters of all flavours will oppose of course. Seems like the war will be won not through a vote but through the choice of the question.

Or, she'll call an election and all will be lost....
Captain Starlet
Captain Starlet
1095 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 03, 2018, 19:55
I saw some posts about the GE. I don't support another one personally, we just need a bit of common sense and a GE isn't going to create that. I'm seeing more support for a final vote, and I'm starting to feel optimistic that it may actually happen!
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