I think that the slipping should be much more predictable with a large stone than with a small one. The sheer weight should be enought to overcome minor surface effects. From the computer model it should be possible to allow for the slippage and still hit the hole.
However, one idea to avoid the problem might be to lash the block to the topmost log of the tower (I call this the pivot log) so that the log rotates with the block. This would keep the block from falling before it strikes the edge of the hole. Once it does, the rotational momentum would pull the log out of the tower as the block moves into it's upright position. It's easier to draw it thanto describe it.
Anyway I have to go out now, I'll check in later this evening.
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