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Mainstream media starts to wake up on climate change fraud
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PMM
PMM
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Edited Feb 04, 2010, 22:21
Re: Mainstream media starts to wake up on climate change fraud
Feb 04, 2010, 19:26
So anyway, here's my understanding of how chaos theory works in practice.

I used the analogy of a grain of sugar. Thousands of grains in fact. It would be impossible to predict where any individual grain will end up, as there will be variation in the position from which it leaves my hand. There will also be variation in the way it interacts with the air, particularly if there are any air currents, and how it interacts with other airborne grains. Once it hits the pile of sugar, it will respond, according to it's shape, the shape of other grains it hits, the angle at which it hits them, the speed at which it is travelling, and probably other factors such as humidity, air pressure, etc. This means that I cannot predict exactly where that grain will end up.

I do know however, that if I have 100,000 grains of sugar in my hand, and I pour them from my hand onto the table, they will form a cone shaped pile. I can also guess that the gradient of the sides of the pile will be fairly constant every time I do this test, as long as the material used, the height from which it is dropped, etc, remain constant. I can predict that if I use a material who's individual grains are more nearly spherical than sugar crystals, the pile will tend to be wider and flatter.

Since I have a theory about it, I can then run a test to assess whether my theory is correct. If I find that the results fit my test, I can run further tests, or even go on to form further theories. And from there I can do further experiments. If the tests disprove my theory, then I change the theory.

So how does that method of operating apply to the climate? Well take a nice easy example. We make the sun burn hotter. We increase the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth. I predict that this would make the Earth's average temperature increase.

I'm sure you won't disagree and tell me that either this would make the Earth cooler, or that Chaos Theory makes it impossible to predict the effect of a bigger, hotter sun.

We can test this in a laboratory. Put a thermometer next to a bunsen burner, and see what happens when you increase the size of the flame.

From that simple test, we can form a scalable theory. Use a thermometer at a set distance from a nuclear explosion. Then use the same thermometer at the same distance from a larger nuclear explosion and you'd expect the thermometer to record a higher temperature.

We know, by observation, that the amount of energy reaching the Earth from the Sun varies slightly over time, and that it does indeed affect the climate.

So here's another theory. "Carbon dioxide absorbs infra red radiation, and this causes the temperature of the medium containing carbon dioxide to increase".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot5n9m4whaw

Since energy cannot be either created or destroyed, that infra red radiation has to go somewhere, and it disperses through the medium as heat.

It is reasonable to predict that by increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide, you will increase the amount of absorption of infra red energy, and therefore the temperature of the CO2 carrying medium. Isn't it? And it's also reasonable to expect this to happen if we increase the scale. We could get a huge chamber and a great big candle, and expect the same thing to happen as happened in the video. Yes?

We cannot precisely predict how the increased temperature will affect the climate. If I was to say that if we double the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, it will rain a week on Wednesday, then obviously I'd be talking out of my arse. But we can say that ther average temperature of thew world is likely to increase if we increase the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere.

From that we can then say that some of the ice is likely to melt. And from that we can say that sea levels are likely to rise. Indeed, by observation, we know this is already happening. It's also happening due to thermal expansion - another well understood principle.

We can also say with some certainity that some of the permafrost will melt, and that this will cause another even more potent greenhouse gas, methane, to be released. We can even say that increased evaporation from warmer temperatures will cause an increase in atmopheric water vapour, which helps to trap further heat.

Anyway, I'm not going to go into the entire science here. I just wanted to point out that complexity does not necessarily equate to incomprehensibility or unpredictability.

If you're trying to say that chaos theory means that making the planet warmer means that ice might or might not melt, then I'm afraid the observed results don't match your theory.
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