I'm pretty sceptical about the magnitude of the "success" of fracking in the United States. It's been pretty productive up to a point, but there are two serious causes for concern.
Firstly - and most obviously - is the environmental damage. There's been a lot of to-ing and fro-ing around this; with some environmentalists insisting that fracking will render parts of America uninhabitable, while the fracking companies insist that the process is entirely benign.
Personally I'd suggest - as is so often the case - that we're looking at something between the two extremes. However, that may still be pretty catastrophic and the long-term effects of fracking on local water tables and wells might be extremely problematic. And yet, funding for investigating these effects has been slashed (this fact alone should make us worried... why are fossil fuel companies lobbying the government to prevent them investigating the effects of fracking? If the process is as benign as they claim, then they should be demanding more research to demonstrate this fact. Not less).
The second issue has to do with the question of exaggerated reserve estimates. I heard one spokesman for a UK-based company interested in fracking claim that Britain could be self-sufficient in fossil fuels for the next two centuries thanks to fracking. The depth of that bullshit can't even be fathomed. In truth, anyone who keeps an eye on the industry trade journals (which for my sins, I tend to) will be aware that there's been a whole lot of exaggeration going on lately. The reasons for this are obvious: a company that claims they've just discovered a monster oil or gas field will get massive investment as a result; and because independent verification of these things is often impossible (depending on the location), the markets are essentially just taking their word on it. The recent huge downgrade of a Brazilian offshore oil field is just one example of this. There is a great deal of speculation that the fracking boom will be a hell of a lot shorter than anyone imagines.
So once again we find ourselves potentially despoiling our planet; shitting in the village well; all in pursuit of a short term solution to a problem that demands a radically different long-term one (i.e. a massive reduction in fossil fuel consumption).
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