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pooley wrote: But hasn't there just been a report saying that scientists have been massging the figures for years to make it seem worse than it is?
When you say report, do you mean media report or scientific report?
Certainly, the hacked emails from University of East Anglia show people pushing to alter some data and suppress unfavourable stuff. but that's three or four people at the University of East Anglia. I's kind of like saying cos my cornershop sell ciggies to kids that all retailers are fraudulent.
pooley wrote: And wasn't there a report saying that Russia would be able to sale through the North Pole in 2 years time published in 1938?
I've not heard of that. But assuming that you're entirely correct, it doesn't change anything. I'm sure there are single reports claiming all kinds of disastrous or rosy scenarios. We have to ask what the level of proof is, and what the scientific consensus is.
The thing with climate change, as opposed to individual reports from 80 years ago, is that for twenty years, we've had tens of thousands of scientists of expertise adding their data to the pile at the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, specifically to get an objective source of credible information. This is not about a couple of studies or a couple of people.
And then, because of the need for scientific consensus followed by the need for political consensus, the wording of the conclusions of the IPCC gets diluted.
Far from being better than predicted, most of the effects of climate change we're seeing are happening faster and worse than predicted.
In its last report (2007) the IPCC said that some models of Arctic sea ice said 'late-summer sea ice is projected to disappear almost completely towards the end of the 21st century'. The rate has accelerated and the current consensus is it will be ice-free in summer within 20 years, most of the thinning happening in the next 10.
This isn't about polar bears, it's about all of us. The Arctic permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere. When that melts, we're toast.
There's been a report just issued, The Copenhagen Diagnosis, as a sort of update to the IPCC's last report, as at two years old that is already a little out of date.
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
Among other things it shows:
- The ice sheets are both losing mass (and hence contributing to sea level rise). This was not certain at the time of the IPCC report.
- Arctic sea ice has declined faster than projected by IPCC.
- Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to track the upper bounds of IPCC projections.
- Observed global temperature changes remain entirely in accord with IPCC projections, ie an anthropogenic warming trend of about 0.2 degrees per decade (with superimposed short-term natural variability).
- Sea level has risen more than 5 centimetres over the past 15 years, about 80 percent higher than IPCC projections from 2001.
Really mate, I'd love it to be bollocks. I'd love to find out we're safe and get on the next plane to Barbados. But the overwhelming evidence from people who know what they're talking about says the opposite.
And, scary as that is, it's a lot more scary that people are blanking it or denying it. It's like seeing the kitchen on fire and going 'we're not insured! We can't handle the idea of the house burning down!' and so hiding behind the sofa saying that it's all alright as fire sweeps through the house instead of getting buckets of water.
We have to act on what we can be sure of, and enact the precautionary principle; that is, if there's a likelihood of something happening that can't be undone, act as if it will happen until there's reasonable evidence that it won't.
We still have a chance to stop climate change before the tipping point, but the odds are tilting against us all the time.
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