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spencer 3071 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 11:45
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| I am irrevocably of the opinion that a great deal of their popularity is due to being given air over the last few years by the Tory dominated BBC. The Tories must've worked out long ago that they'd get stuffed at the next election and that their current coalition partners would be too. Solution: encourage a future partner through airtime. Doubtless Murdoch's helped, but I never read his rags. For all his bluster today underneath I bet Cameron's pleased. | |
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spencer 3071 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 12:08
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Have just read Craig Murray's latest post, 'An Ugly Mood'. Topic nailed. http://www.craigmurray.org.uk
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Captain Starlet 1110 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 12:47
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It's hardly a ukip victory being the last larger fringe party to actually get an elected seat! The Greens and respect beat them to that long ago, but you won't hear that being celebrated in the press! Also how did they win exactly? Carswell was already the MP there, already in parliament who defected last minute to ukip. People would have voted for him anyway as he was their MP and clearly liked in the area. So this isn't a ukip victory at all it's just a vote for carswell and maintaining the status quo in the area. After approx 17 years of ukip to finally get 1 mp in parliament with a 36% turnout should be seen for exactly what it is, a huge failure to gain momentum and curry favour of the opinion of the country. |
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Vybik Jon 7718 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 12:50
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| Off topic - your avatar's a bit flash innit? | |
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Captain Starlet 1110 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 12:54
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Well it is the weekend!
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spencer 3071 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 13:43
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| The narrow second in Heywood made me go 'gawd' more | |
grufty jim 1978 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 14:44
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Captain Starlet wrote: It's hardly a ukip victory being the last larger fringe party to actually get an elected seat! The Greens and respect beat them to that long ago, but you won't hear that being celebrated in the press! Also how did they win exactly? Carswell was already the MP there, already in parliament who defected last minute to ukip. People would have voted for him anyway as he was their MP and clearly liked in the area. So this isn't a ukip victory at all it's just a vote for carswell and maintaining the status quo in the area. After approx 17 years of ukip to finally get 1 mp in parliament with a 36% turnout should be seen for exactly what it is, a huge failure to gain momentum and curry favour of the opinion of the country. I'd tend to go along with a lot of what you have to say, though I'd also sound a note of caution. Historically, small parties in the UK have generally gotten nowhere near actual power. And the notion that UKIP will have a significant number of MPs after the next election seems fanciful. More than that, while all political parties succumb to a certain amount of infighting and factionalism, it tends to destroy smaller parties and those who don't represent broad mainstream views; whereas large, centrist parties can generally shed fringe members without a fatal split occurring. This tendency to split is especially true whenever small parties get even a whiff of power. Witness the rapid disintegration of the BNP as soon as they'd got themselves an MEP or two. It wouldn't surprise me if UKIP win a handful of seats in the next election and collapse as a party within two years, half of that handful returning to the tory fold and the others queuing up to bad-mouth Farage in the tabloids as they all plan simultaneous leadership bids. But at the same time, I wonder if that's not a bit complacent...? I believe we're looking at some pretty tough years ahead (socially and economically). I'm of the opinion that the financial crash of 2007/2008 was merely an earth tremor ahead of a much bigger quake. And in environments such as those, there's a real danger of fringe parties gaining surprising traction. There are plausible scenarios where UKIP actually start influencing policy more than perhaps you or I might like. Both indirectly and directly. Even if they don't get a huge number of MPs, there are precedents that don't require a major economic downturn by which they might "share power". And that's excluding the scenario of an official coalition (which I don't think the tories would countenance for fear that it confer legitimacy on UKIP and cannibalise their own membership). All the same, there have been brief periods when the Unionists in Northern Ireland were propping up a slim tory majority, and most objective historians would agree that, behind closed doors, concessions were made to secure that support. Again, I'm not suggesting that will happen. Past experience seems to suggest it's very rare. But it's not such a completely insane idea that those of a leftist bent shouldn't be at least a little bit concerned about it. For me the nightmare scenario for Britain would be a solid showing for UKIP (7+ MPs), a collapse of the LibDems and a razor-thin Labour majority. Miliband has already found himself dragged ever further to the right by the sheer weight of the media presence given to the UKIP / tory discussion and it'd only get worse if that discussion relocated to the House of Commons. His inability to forge a distinct voice for Labour and instead chase UKIP, Osborne and Boris Johnson rightwards would paralyse the government who would almost certainly end up with rebels on their own backbenches. Then, come the first major crisis, the Labour government will be unable to cope, UKIP won't have had time to implode and an early election will see them capitalise hugely on Labour's split into "Labour Left" and "Labour Right". Prime Minister Boris Johnson won't have any choice but seek coalition with a UKIP that now occupies 43 seats in the Commons. The snap referendum sees the Euro-Out side win by 55% to 45%. Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland all fail to qualify for the next world cup. OK, OK, so the fiction writer in me got caught up in the dystopian potential there. But strip away the hyperbole and I think there's a point in there somewhere. Farage is likely to self-destruct, and let's all keep our fingers crossed that he does. But at the same time... I'm not nearly as confident about that happening as I was with Nick Griffin or James Goldsmith or Robert Kilroy-Silk. For a start, the mainstream media is treating him very very differently, and that's no small thing. |
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Captain Starlet 1110 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 16:14
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I'm more inclined to believe the first half there, not only because it sounds much more preferable but when economies recover these parties often disappear, not to mention people soon tire of the novelty of supporting such a party once they realise what a bunch of idiots they are. I do feel ukip are soon to go back under their rock and we'll go back to forgetting them again. I do find it annoying, and unfair, that the media are all over them for actually gaining a seat that would have been won by Carswell anyway, so hardly a ukip victory, when other parties with less members have had MP's for years. But then that's the bias of british media I suppose. |
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grufty jim 1978 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 16:31
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Captain Starlet wrote: I'm more inclined to believe the first half there, not only because it sounds much more preferable but when economies recover these parties often disappear, not to mention people soon tire of the novelty of supporting such a party once they realise what a bunch of idiots they are. I do feel ukip are soon to go back under their rock and we'll go back to forgetting them again. I do find it annoying, and unfair, that the media are all over them for actually gaining a seat that would have been won by Carswell anyway, so hardly a ukip victory, when other parties with less members have had MP's for years. But then that's the bias of british media I suppose. Well, I hope it goes without saying that I far prefer your scenario. But it's because I'm not convinced that the economy is recovering (a lengthy crash may contain periods that appear like recovery) that I have a nagging concern. Also, while the media is all over them, I don't think it's anything to do with the Carswell by-election. In fact, I'd suggest that's getting the cart before the horse, and the Carswell by-election happened precisely because the media was all over them. I watched the BBCs coverage of the European elections and I'm not exaggerating when I say that it honestly felt like a Party Political Broadcast for UKIP for extended periods of the night (and I wasn't the only person to notice, this perception was widely held if social media is anything to go by). The Mail, Express and - to a lesser extent as they're still firmly behind the tories - the Murdoch papers are even worse. Whereas the media always seemed vaguely hostile towards or - at best - bemused by, smaller parties this is not the case with UKIP. They are taking them and their ideas very seriously. And that in turn confers legitimacy, which then - in a feedback loop - draws further media coverage. If I was British I'd be very unhappy with my media right now. More so than usual. |
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Captain Starlet 1110 posts |
Oct 10, 2014, 18:33
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Totally agree with the media, I gave up on tv years ago, I either download or watch online. I refuse to pay good money to watch that lot on my tv. There were so many complaints to the bbc after the EU elections, and typically they came back and said they'd shown the same amount per party, which was complete rubbish. I never watch bbc nowadays, or read their news, it's just turned into a lightweight daily mail for my liking.
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