I might be completely wrong, but if you divide 50 by 1.006, you get the reduction after 1 year, including the growth rate of 0.6. Repeat the calculation until the number of times you did this yearly calculation matches the number of years left.
Do the same thing, but using a divisor of 1.036 (3% reduction that needs to be made up for using shale oil plus 0.6% growth rate)
Each time you repeat the calculation the years left reduces, as it would do if, as the caveat "at current rates" states.
So if I divided by 1, 50 times, the number of times I did the calculation would be 50, and the years supply would be 50 also.
Mapping growth year by year, the number of years left matched the number of times I did the calculation between 39 and 40 times. Mapping growth plus shortfall caused this to happen after I did the calculation between 22 and 23 years.
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