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Jesus I despise Brexit.
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thesweetcheat
thesweetcheat
6200 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 04, 2018, 18:54
thesweetcheat wrote:
Agree with all of that. I think the Grieve amendment (that MPs can have a vote on what Plan B should be if May's deal is voted down) coupled with the likely ruling from the ECJ that Article 50 can be withdrawn unilaterally by the UK gets rid of:

(a) likelihood of no-deal (because MPs won't vote for it)


PS, it was interesting to see a few of May's loyalists voting for this (Fallon, etc). I wonder whether they think that the amendment actually does her a favour by allowing her to consider a Plan B, which she has not countenanced at all in the face of repeated questions from all sides.
grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 04, 2018, 18:56
I've been surprised at how poorly Labour are showing in the polls. And this is despite the fact I think they've done a bloody terrible job in opposition over the past two years. I just thought they'd have better numbers by default... given how disastrous the tories have been lately. It's odd.

Even so... I do think Labour would win comfortably if there was another election. Given how disastrous the entire Brexit thing has been, and given that the tories would be campaigning while fighting a bitter civil war, I think Corbyn *would* get a comfortable majority despite himself, should there be a GE.
nigelswift
8112 posts

Edited Dec 04, 2018, 19:06
Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 04, 2018, 19:05
"gets rid of:
(a) likelihood of no-deal (because MPs won't vote for it) and
(b) excuses that we have to leave because the EU won't "let us" change our mind now"

And for that reason she's switched from "my way or hard Brexit" to "my way or Remain" which is exactly what a second Ref ought to be asking. I think the hard men are going to have to find something pretty special.
Captain Starlet
Captain Starlet
1110 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 04, 2018, 19:57
I'm not surprised they're doing so badly to be honest. Labour in Wales are basically tory mouthpieces and people are getting very fed up with them. Across the uk, Corbyn isn't trusted, which is hardly surprising as one of many consensuses are is that he's never once stood up for the uk, so how can he be trusted to lead a country he's never supported in people's eyes?

In comparison with the shower that the tories are, Labour should be walking through the polls with ease, and I genuinely believe that for the most part, the reason for that is an appalling front bench and useless leader who only supports causes he's personally interested in with little to no regard for anyone else. The People's vote march was a prime example which saw him lose a lot of support for his repeated conspicuous absence!

With the polls I really have no idea why Corbyn is repeatedly droning on about a GE that he's not going to win. I think his ego is getting the better of him over actual reality, but then he's just a part of the Westminster bubble now so not really a shock, but if Labour want a shot at a GE they've got to ditch Corbyn. I was genuinely surprised while I was still a labour member how genuinely hated he really is!
thesweetcheat
thesweetcheat
6200 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 04, 2018, 20:00
nigelswift wrote:
"gets rid of:
(a) likelihood of no-deal (because MPs won't vote for it) and
(b) excuses that we have to leave because the EU won't "let us" change our mind now"

And for that reason she's switched from "my way or hard Brexit" to "my way or Remain" which is exactly what a second Ref ought to be asking. I think the hard men are going to have to find something pretty special.


Yep, it's both fascinating to watch unfold and utterly horrifying that it's come to this.
PMM
PMM
3155 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 06, 2018, 02:43
thesweetcheat wrote:
although I still doubt Labour would win a majority at present, their vacillating over which position to take on Brexit will have put a lot of people off.


They haven't vacillated. They have been consistently ambiguous. I think this reflects both that the Labour Party has moved to the left, and that this change is anything but uniform.

Who are they for? Originally, as I understand things, they were created as a workers and trades union movement, but were always a broad church. That breadth created internal tensions and power struggles over ideology. It has always drawn its following from a mix of the politicised working class and the progressive middle class. These groups have different agendas, and much of the vote for Brexit came from working class areas, to the continued bafflement and bemusement of many, while most of the push towards remain tended to come from the more cosmopolitan urban centres.

I suspect without the freak dynamic that led to Corbyn becoming leader, the Labour Party would have quickly aligned itself firmly in the Remain camp, partly because of political opportunism, but mainly because that's where it was and who it was for. The working class, the strongholds would vote for them anyway.

Yet Corbyn did become leader, and the forces that pushed him into that position have also been at work at every level of the Labour Party's organisational structure. Those forces have to be recognised. With a currently engaged grass roots pushing for deselections and changes to the political balance of the Labour Party's core structures, some of the changes being wrought will last for a good few years, although I think the wave of Corbyn-Mania has probably crested.

If the Labour Party has moved towards the working class, and the working class wants Brexit, it has a mandate, no matter how ill judged that mandate may be.

The question is of course, Why did so many of the hoi polloi vote for it in the first place? I'm not entirely convinced that half the country are gullible or racist or both.
nigelswift
8112 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 06, 2018, 07:09
"I'm not entirely convinced that half the country are gullible or racist or both."

Of course not, but 4% are and that has been enough to swing it and even now May is addressing them in particular.
Captain Starlet
Captain Starlet
1110 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 06, 2018, 07:21
I agree that if Corbyn hadn't been elected leader then labour would be firmly remain, the unfortunate point is is that Corbyn is rather anti-EU, remember he was the one saying A50 should be sent immediately on the day after the ref. This has created a huge level of confusion within labour who don't really know which side they're supposed to be representing (Remain or leave). This confusion has cost Labour a large number of potential votes and supporters.

During the last People's Vote march, Corbyn conveniently managed to send himself off to Geneva for a jolly. The post he made on Twitter on the day of the march telling people what he was doing was met with a great number of responses, all of them shunning him for not even being in the country to represent the largest movement in the country since the Iraq march.

Also there's the point that 86% of Labour members support remain, or a People's Vote. Corbyn is also ignoring them with his lack of support, although he promised to do otherwise with regard to members.

All polls online still point to the tories winning a GE, a large reason for this, I personally believe, is labour's lack of direction and support over leaving the EU.
nigelswift
8112 posts

May's latest big fib
Dec 06, 2018, 09:40
"Some people say take No Deal off the table but the only way to do that is to have A deal".

Nope.
nigelswift
8112 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Dec 10, 2018, 08:18
European Court says we CAN withdraw unilaterally. (The UK Government opposed it of course).

My best scenario would be cancelling. And once we have, Europe presenting us with a bill for all the needless expense 27 other countries have been put to.

Fair's fair.
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