goffik
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Sep 21, 2018, 11:56
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I've learned a lot from James O'Brien and listen to him pretty much every day. A very insightful, intelligent man who is happy to listen to all sides of any conversation if the caller can back up their points with facts and research. He's well on form today.
G x
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nigelswift
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Sep 21, 2018, 14:51
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It looks to me as if they've run the whole farce through a focus group and decided they should go with the "poor us, they've disrespected us". It'll probably work but it distracts from the crap that we'll all be poorer and the EU can offer nothing to prevent that.
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Locodogz
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Sep 21, 2018, 17:03
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I work with him and he's genuinely a top, top bloke. Does occasional Q&A sessions with our top brass and never holds back
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goffik
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Sep 24, 2018, 16:52
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Ah, I'm glad to hear that! He certainly comes across as someone who doesn't suffer fools, so I'd be disappointed if he pulled punches with anyone! :D
G x
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goffik
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Sep 24, 2018, 16:53
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/uk-eu-flights-would-cease-immediately-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit
G x
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nigelswift
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Sep 28, 2018, 11:07
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David Baddiel
?Verified account @Baddiel
People say that another vote on Brexit would not respect the result of the 2017 referendum, but then again, the result of the 2017 referendum did not respect the result of the 1975 referendum.
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nigelswift
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Boris plays the race card
Oct 01, 2018, 10:32
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As I've always claimed (and got criticised for) it was the racism what swung it for Brexit. Boris knows that.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/30/spend-foreign-aid-budget-british-peoples-priorities-save-elephants/
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grufty jim
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Edited Oct 10, 2018, 11:50
Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Oct 10, 2018, 11:49
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I suspect it's not going to happen. There's talk that the EU will find a way to extend Article 50 until the end of May (when the EU parliamentary elections are held). But it's less to do with extending negotiations as it is about giving the UK enough time to hold a second referendum.
It's becoming apparent that -- no matter what deal Theresa May brings back from Brussels -- in all likelihood it will fail to pass the required UK parliamentary vote. That's purely down to the current state of UK politics and the "confidence & supply" agreement with the DUP. And while it's not guaranteed of course, the EU are aware there's a high chance of the UK having a General Election, a Tory Leadership contest, or a 2nd referendum (maybe all three!) in the next few months... and nobody wants to see the UK crash out with no deal just because internal tory chaos leaves the country without an effective government.
Extending Article 50 beyond May will present all sorts of legal challenges, but an extra couple of months should be enough for a change of government in Westminster and another referendum to cancel the whole thing. That's the thinking anyway.
The only alternatives at this stage are an almighty fudge or a crash out. In the fudge; the UK essentially remains a member in everything but name, staying within the jurisdiction of the ECJ and retaining access to the Customs Union (but without any say in how they're run and no representation at EU level). Oddly enough this would be acceptable to the DUP as it would prevent a differentiation between Northern Ireland and GB, but would not be acceptable to the tory right.
A crash out would be an unmitigated disaster. The vast majority of people now understand this. If it happens, it'll be by mistake I think.
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nigelswift
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Oct 10, 2018, 14:57
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Agreed. I worry about a fudge though, with May claiming it's a negotiating triumph.
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grufty jim
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Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Oct 10, 2018, 15:39
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I think a fudge will create internal political problems for the UK -- potentially for a decade or more -- but it won't cause the kind of serious economic problems that a "no deal" crash out would. (in my view)
From an Irish perspective, the "fudge" would cause minimal change / problems so obviously it's the best scenario for us (aside from a decision to Remain of course).
My guess is the fudge would last for a couple of parliaments until another referendum was held and the EU would allow the UK to rejoin on a "fast track" basis (after all, they never truly left, from a regulatory standpoint) but without the previous "perks" (rebates, opt-outs, etc.)
And my guess is that the UK will be ready to accept that by then.
------
Alternatively, the rise of populism combined with Climate Change, resource depletion and sheer bad luck will result in a global catastrophe that will rip Europe apart just as it rips through everywhere else.
So y'know... maybe by 2030 brexit will be seen as "not all that bad really... not compared to The Extinction Crisis anyway..."
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