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Jesus I despise Brexit.
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giNgko_C
giNgko_C
1618 posts

Edited Jul 27, 2018, 19:50
Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 27, 2018, 19:48
I remember replying to somebody on Facebook who asked me what I was doing on there so much (it was early days) and I just replied saying "I am a Government department in charge of spreading disinformation" - that was 10 years ago so glad to see everybody's finally caught up, not like I wrote to my local MP about it, I'll get back to my armchair.

Cx
nigelswift
8065 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 07:37
Edward Luce
?Verified account @EdwardGLuce
22h22 hours ago

Increasingly clear that if U.K. can somehow reverse Brexit, it would be hammer blow to western populist-nationalism in general. Not just Britain’s future at stake.

J.K. Rowling liked.

Me too!
tjj
tjj
3588 posts

Edited Jul 31, 2018, 10:04
Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 09:56
I have a 'Brexit' question Nigel and I hope you or someone else can answer it. As Article 50 has been triggered ....
"Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon gives any EU member state the right to quit unilaterally, and outlines the procedure for doing so. It gives the leaving country two years to negotiate an exit deal and once it's set in motion it can't be stopped except by unanimous consent of all member states.
No country has ever left the EU before, and there was no way to legally leave the EU before the Treaty of Lisbon was signed in 2007."


Even if there were another referendum in favour of not leaving surely the process can't be stopped. It seems to me we would have to apply to re-join and get in the queue. The once strong sterling currency now worth almost the same as a euro, how long before its worth less. Would the EU want us ???
nigelswift
8065 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 10:51
tjj wrote:
Would the EU want us ???



Yes. The latest "horses mouth" statement (as opposed to the "irrevocable" twaddle from some shitty Tories) was less than a week ago:

"Britain could still cancel Brexit and stay in the European Union on the same terms it currently enjoys, the French government has said.

Nathalie Loiseau, the country’s European affairs minister, said on Thursday France and other member states still did not want Britain to leave the bloc."
grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 10:57
tjj wrote:
I have a 'Brexit' question Nigel and I hope you or someone else can answer it. As Article 50 has been triggered ....

Even if there were another referendum in favour of not leaving surely the process can't be stopped. It seems to me we would have to apply to re-join and get in the queue. The once strong sterling currency now worth almost the same as a euro, how long before its worth less. Would the EU want us ???


In answer to the first point - Article 50 can be revoked. This has been confirmed by the EU Commission (and also by the principle author of the wording of the Article -- who is British, coincidentally). But it needs to be done before the end of the two year period. The UK will cease being a member of the EU next March automatically unless that's done -- no matter how the negotiations pan out or what "transition period" gets agreed.

If Article 50 is not revoked by March and the UK leaves (either with a deal or without) then it will take a long time to get back in -- should you ever want to. Legally, the UK won't receive preferential treatment as an ex-member and the process to join the EU is a lengthy one.

Worth noting that the UK would be readmitted under less favourable conditions than it currently enjoys. It would have to give a commitment to join the Euro and Schengen (two items it currently has opt-outs on) and would lose its rebate and any other special benefits that Thatcher negotiated on its behalf.

In terms of whether the EU would "want" the UK? The answer is yes. But the amount by which it wants the UK as a member drops dramatically after next March. Having the UK inside the EU is a net benefit to the Union. Nobody has ever denied that... though Leavers / Quitters significantly over-estimate that benefit.

Leaving the EU is the right of any member, but it imposes costs on others that they never voted for. Ireland is spending a small fortune upgrading the port infrastructure, hiring over a thousand new customs officers and inspectors, and money that should have been going into our health service is now being spent upgrading the IT systems that handle trade with the UK.

And that's not to even mention the potentially larger social, cultural, political and economic upheavals that a hard-border on this island would impose.

So no, we're not too happy with what's going on in the UK (Ireland will be hardest hit, but it's not just us... the Dutch are hiring an additional 750 customs officers; the French are looking at spending almost a billion euro upgrading their ports and eurostar terminal). We'd absolutely love it if you stopped the insanity before March. The UK has lost a huge amount of respect in Europe because of Brexit, and that's not coming back any time soon, but we'd still prefer NOT to have to deal with the disruption caused by the UK leaving, if it can be avoided. And cancelling Article 50 could and would achieve that.

Once the UK is out, however, the damage is done. It would still be a net benefit for the EU to have the UK rejoin. And that would probably not be blocked. But nor would there be any great rush to see it happen.
nigelswift
8065 posts

Edited Jul 31, 2018, 11:15
Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 11:14
It crosses my mind that had the Europeans been as small minded as many Brexiters they'd demand a "cancellation fee" for all the unnecessary expense they've been put to. But they haven't. We belong in Europe, they're our people and we're theirs.
tjj
tjj
3588 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 11:26
Thank you for taking the time to answer my question and for the information, much appreciated. Six months to stop this madness - somehow I doubt there is time.
grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 11:42
tjj wrote:
Thank you for taking the time to answer my question and for the information, much appreciated. Six months to stop this madness - somehow I doubt there is time.


I'm currently on a pendulum that swings between "No deal / crash out" and "Brexit will be cancelled" (roughly every three hours, or depending on what article I've read last).

I don't think there's time to negotiate anything that might be described as a "good deal" any more (assuming such a thing was ever possible... and I have my doubts about that). And whether or not the UK crashes out or cancels is entirely dependent upon the internal machinations of the tory party, the whims of a handful of DUP MPs, and the deep and mystifying apathy of Corbyn's Labour Party.

So basically... flip a coin!
Locodogz
Locodogz
265 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 12:03
I'm kind of thinking along the same lines - although I believe the 'crash out' seems the more likely.

Just as a point of interest - given that the only way I could see us remaining in the EU would be if that course was 'legitimised' by a second referendum - does anyone know how long it would take to put this in place (frame question, arrange date/polling centres etc)?
nigelswift
8065 posts

Re: Jesus I despise Brexit.
Jul 31, 2018, 12:31
Depends if there's a will to do it I think. There are no constitutional requirements as to timing I think - as referendums aren't really part of our constitution.

With the PM saying there'll be no second referendum under any circumstances and as you say, Labour's unfathomable apathy, it's not looking too hopeful yet.
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