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Climate-Cat's out of the Bag!
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stray
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Edited Dec 04, 2009, 12:08
Re: Hi Guys!
Dec 04, 2009, 11:59
DarkMagus wrote:

With the latter two it is possible to actually conduct controlled experiments to demonstrate the processes.


Really ? No, actually. Not as regards the cancer/smoking link. There is a positive correlation, thats the evidence, that is good enough cos the correlation is very positive. Understand ? There is no scientific causal explanation of why smoking causes cancer, just a really strong indication that people who smoke have higher incidents of cancer. Climate models work the same way, in that there seems to be strong correlations between global temperatures and CO2 emissions etc.

The creation/evolution example you gave is dumb, and is something to discuss philosophically, metaphysically bascially, and definitely not scientifically. I mean if you know of a 'controlled experiment' that disproves the existence of god I'm all ears.

What I'm saying is, speaking as someone who actually has a history of analysing complex datasets, you don't really know what you're talking about and I suggest that you try to learn something about data analysis and..well.. scientific method before you go off on one as if you do 'get it'.

Have you ever looked through any papers describing the analysis methods applied to climate models ? If so, please tell us where you see the flaws in the approaches used. There are many approaches, and many different datasets available that have to be... well.. conflated to some extent. If you think that having many aproaches to analysing the datasets is indicative of 'fiddling the data' or 'tweaking' then you really don't get science or analysis.

Edit : Oh and btw. Some of the leaked emails from Hadley CRU are actually pretty horrifying. As in, the emails from the developer about the state of the data and the code are pretty fucking shocking and a cause for concern. Thing is though, its not the only place with a climate model is it ? Also other models are run a lot better than that one.

It's Science guvnor, you don't just use one model you know.
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