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Fantasy Political Funeral
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grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Edited May 11, 2013, 14:59
Re: Fantasy Political Funeral
May 11, 2013, 14:54
jshell wrote:
I disagree about Europe. I want us out and I want us out now. I currently live in Norway and they laugh at the UK. Norway has more trade with Europe than us but remains outside the EU in terms of stupid laws, financial controls and downright fuckwittery.

Personally I disagree with your position on the EU for a bunch of reasons. What I don't understand is why people can't debate the issue without plucking imaginary facts from the air. It's really quite disheartening.

The claim that "Norway has more trade with Europe than us" is just nonsense. Of the highest order. It can be massaged to fit reality if you talk about trade per capita, but as we'll see given the deficits involved - that cuts both ways.

The last year for which we have full figures is 2011. During that year, Norway exported a total of €46.6bn in goods to the EU and €20.9bn in services. That's a total of €67.5bn.

During the same year, they imported €93.5bn in goods and €11.4bn in services; a total of €104.9bn.

So you're looking at total trade figures of around €172bn (incorporating a deficit of €37.4bn).

Figures from here.

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The UK in 2011, exported £158bn to the EU (or €187bn at today's exchange rate). Imports for the same year were £202bn (€240bn).

So total UK trade with the EU for 2011 was €427bn (with a deficit of €53bn).

Figures taken from spreadsheets downloaded here

These numbers dwarf the Norwegian trade figures.

---------------

Of course, you can argue that Norway has a tiny population in comparison with the UK. Very true. But let's take a look at what that actually implies for the trade deficits of both nations.

With Norway's population at approx 5m, their trade deficit with the EU works out at:
€7,480 per person

For the UK, with a population of 62.5m, the trade deficit with the EU is:
€848 per person

Suddenly your claim that "Norway has more trade with Europe than us" isn't looking all that solid (either on a per capita basis, or in raw numbers)

Ultimately though that's of little relevance when you take a look at the composition of Norway's exports. Over 55% of Norway's exports to the EU is crude oil / natural gas or their derivatives. This compares with 18% for the UK. And crucially, the giant North Sea oil and gas fields have peaked and entered decline. Norway's miraculous trade figures are based on a one-off geological bounty that is coming to an end.

I do not deny that Norway is punching above its weight as far as population Vs exports is concerned. But just as Ireland punched above its weight throughout the noughties thanks to a property boom that has now left us devastated, so Norway's export activity will essentially collapse along with their oil output.

In fairness to the Norwegians, they have seen this coming and are better prepared for their bubble to burst than were the Irish. But to suggest that Norway's past success is in any way tied to their non-EU status is fantasy. And to suggest this success will outlive their hydrocarbon boom is highly dubious.
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