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climate change ain't happening in northern ireland
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pooley
pooley
501 posts

Re: Here we go again pt 2
Jan 25, 2010, 18:27
Merrick wrote:
jshell wrote:
The Science is settled then??


Were the science not dependent on peer-review that weeds out fabrications, and/or were it dependednt on the work of that one person at UEA then you'd have a point.

However, as PMM has said on this thread already, to extrapolate that from the UEA emails is to 'choose to ignore the thousands of correlated studies of everything from ice cores to lake bed pollen samples because this one set of results reinforces their prejudices'.

jshell wrote:
I think I'm starting to see JUST how the IPCC works. I think that many others are too! See my thoughts on the IPCC above.


I have, and I'm still not seeing how a lack of anthropogenic climate change would render dozens of entire scientific fields including climatology, meteorology, oceanography, forest ecology, redundant.

jshell wrote:
Merrick wrote:
For evidence of this being a vast conspiracy involving the pre-eminent scientific bodies of dozens of nations and hundreds of thousands of scientists, you're going to have to find better sources than the Speak Your Brains of comments on the BBC news site.


There are many sources out there now and they're growing. At last count, 'climategate' registered 11,400,000 hits on Google.


Which does not in any way give evidence that anthropogenic climate change isn't happening. Try googling about Jesus and Satan and see how many hits you get. Does that show the existence of a real living Satan?

I'm asking for hard facts that this is a conspiracy, because it would take in so many thousands of people, including the Royal Society and equivalent bodies all across the world. The UEA datasets about treerings aren't really enough.

jshell wrote:
Doesn't that break the BBC's charter of impartiality?


About as much as their ignoring of other perspectives only held by a tiny fraction of people with relevant knowledge, such as creationism or HIV not causing Aids. Should they have an hour's creationist twaddle after every Attenborough programme about evolution?

jshell wrote:
Even the 'Mail' is printing dissenting articles


Heh, 'even' the Mail, the grand outpost of truth on scientific matters, whose Science Editor was the last one on a national newspaper to maintain a climate denier position. You've got such a gift for presenting evidence that undermines your position. Do go on....

jshell wrote:
as for the temperature rising, even the BBC have to admit that it hasn't for the last 11 years


Yet another point that you've already had explained to you.

"The evidence is clear – the long-term trend is that global temperatures are rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise. Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer than the last. Natural phenomena will mean that some years will be much warmer and others cooler.

"You only need to look at 1998 to see a record-breaking warm year caused by a very strong El Nino. In the last couple of years, the underlying warming is partially masked caused by a strong La Nina. Despite this, 11 of the last 13 years were the warmest ever recorded."

1998 was a year exacerbated by other factors because - please read it this time - everybody agrees that there are many factors that affect climate and global temperature. 1998 was the hottest on record, calling it 'cooling' since then implies a process of, well, cooling. Yet if we 2000 as our start point, every year since has been hotter.

The thing is to be scientific, rather than to cherry pick. We need to look at all factors and overall trends. Fifteen of the top 20 hottest years on record have been since 1990. Do we see a pattern emerging on the graph?

I say again, what could be the cause other than natural process exacerbated by carbon emissions? And why do you admit that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas yet reckon that doubling it in the atmosphere doesn't increase the greenhouse effect?


Blimey

reading this post is the forum equivalent of watching two people stick there fingers in there ears and go "LALALALALALALALALALA NOT LISTENING LALALALALALA"

Merrick - I know you are passionate about this, and that is all to your credit. We need people like you out there to write about these things and open eyes.

I do, however, worry that you are so passionate about it that you refuse to see any other point of view - resort to sarcasm and bullying. It aint pleasant.


JShell - you play nicely too!!

Me? With the science, I'm kind of with Merrick. But love that people diasgree and think they should be able to post without being belittled.
Merrick
Merrick
2148 posts

Edited Jan 25, 2010, 18:55
Re: Here we go again pt 2
Jan 25, 2010, 18:55
pooley wrote:
reading this post is the forum equivalent of watching two people stick there fingers in there ears


Except that one of us walks the other through the established science while the other goes 'quick! over there!' and points to yet another long-discredited idea that 20 seconds googling could've sorted them out on.

pooley wrote:
I do, however, worry that you are so passionate about it that you refuse to see any other point of view - resort to sarcasm and bullying.


Pooley, I do take your point mate, but if somebody says 'I don't think evolution really happened' I'll walk them through it. If they keep coming back with the same points, or tired, disproven twaddle from nutter Christians I'm going to treat their poor thinking as deliberate and subject it to the disdain it deserves.

This is not like arguing about moral issues where there's a need to maintain respect of position, but about continual denial of things that are verifiable and indeed the ability to reason clearly itself. If that doesn't merit belittling (alongside solid factual refutation), i don't know what does.
pooley
pooley
501 posts

Re: Here we go again pt 2
Jan 25, 2010, 19:01
Merrick wrote:
pooley wrote:
reading this post is the forum equivalent of watching two people stick there fingers in there ears


Except that one of us walks the other through the established science while the other goes 'quick! over there!' and points to yet another long-discredited idea that 20 seconds googling could've sorted them out on.

pooley wrote:
I do, however, worry that you are so passionate about it that you refuse to see any other point of view - resort to sarcasm and bullying.


Pooley, I do take your point mate, but if somebody says 'I don't think evolution really happened' I'll walk them through it. If they keep coming back with the same points, or tired, disproven twaddle from nutter Christians I'm going to treat their poor thinking as deliberate and subject it to the disdain it deserves.

This is not like arguing about moral issues where there's a need to maintain respect of position, but about continual denial of things that are verifiable and indeed the ability to reason clearly itself. If that doesn't merit belittling (alongside solid factual refutation), i don't know what does.


Fair enough, me old mate
giNgko_C
giNgko_C
125 posts

Re: climate change ain't happening in northern ireland
Jan 26, 2010, 02:48
cuz it fockin rains all the time.

mind you, they do still argue about a book which doesn't contain the original guitar tab.

Cx
riverman
riverman
289 posts

Re: Not in England either..... 2 of 2
Jan 26, 2010, 11:05
I'm writing as a scientist who researches flood response to past climate and land use changes; I regularly attend international conferences where climate change is debated (indeed I saw Mann give a talk last year) but I'm not part of IPCC. I have contributed to a recent Spanish government report, co-authoring a chapter on climate change and floods in Spain.

I'm not going to go through the scientific arguments of climate change – I think Merrick has already done a good job. What I wanted to say were a couple of things from my perspective, not about the science of climate change but about the nature of the scientific community and the current process of doing research, which may help explain where there might be mistakes, or indeed why some scientists may exaggerate results!

The fundamental factor driving climate change research is that theoretically governments (most anyway!) want predictions of future climate for long-term planning. Prediction is a fundamental goal of applied science but is incredibly complex, especially with respect to the environment and of course global climate. There will always be uncertainties, refinements, rejection of previous ideas - that IS science. The IPCC is really doing an impossible job – it is trying to reach a consensus (within the scientific community and between scientists and politicians) so by definition it will be having to ‘ignore’ or downplay some evidence. But that works both ways, at opposite ends of the spectrum. There are many climate scientists who argue that the last IPCC report doesn’t go far enough in its predictions of warming over the next century. It doesn’t include Bill Ruddiman’s hypothesis of anthropogenic warming and increased GHG emissions from around 6000 years ago. The overall consensus of the IPCC however is that current global warming is anthropogenic in origin, despite the natural climatic variability.

Most individual countries, and indeed the EC etc, designate a budget for scientific research, a proportion of which will be allocated for climate change research. Scientists then need to compete for a slice of this money by writing detailed research proposals. I recently had a proposal rejected, it didn't even make the 50% cut to go to the next stage - from the 3 reviewer comments there were a couple of things I could improve but essentially the science was fine, ultimately it wasn't making a big enough step forward in the scientific agenda i.e. the UK has a limited (and reducing!) research budget and for the UK's competitiveness in the international research community only exciting new ideas and methodologies will be funded, probably at the expense of other research that isn't yet complete but is no longer sufficiently new. Essentially this is why we will imminently have a serious shortage of soil scientists in the UK – soil research is no longer funded, it’s not exciting enough but we still need soil scientists to work in the agricultural sector! I fear some of the scientific building blocks for our improved understanding could be by-passed. Darwin would never have got funded under the current system!!

All researchers in UK universities are "audited" typically over a 5-7 year cycle. Whilst in the past this has clearly had a positive impact on the quality of research in the UK it really puts pressure on individual researchers to perform – this being monitored by grant income, quality (and interest!) of research papers and societal contribution (e.g. membership of the IPCC). And most of us are full time lecturers – I barely have enough time in the year for me to do the necessary research and associated scientific activities to achieve expected targets, whilst maintaining integrity in my teaching (oh and doing university admin – next year I will be in charge of our department’s exam process, not an insignificant job). It’s actually impossible for me to read all the papers relevant to my field that are published in a year!

The point of this is to show that there will be mistakes, there will be people in the scientific community who exaggerate results, make false claims etc – I’m afraid it’s human nature and like the rest of society there are some unpleasant and ultra-competitive people in the business, and it doesn’t surprise me to see results exaggerated. I have first hand experience of this – I was a co-author on a synthesis/review paper published a few years ago. I was actually opposed to the main conclusion of the paper (an exaggerated opinion of what the data was showing) and said so during the writing – the lead author didn’t send me the manuscript again until it had been accepted by the publishers and was in press. Ironically that paper is now my most cited, and I totally disagree with it – I have just submitted a new paper criticising it, so my personal research output will improve as a consequence of poor science!

What amazes me is why climate sceptics leap on some mistakes or manipulated data to expose anthropogenic climate change as some great fraud whilst not questioning the research of climate sceptics (which in the past has been funded by oil companies, no independent impartiality there then). This can only reflect what the individual wants to believe. Ultimately, climate change is just one of many inter-related issues (e.g. increasing population, soil degradation, resource depletion) that will have disastrous consequences. The main approaches to mitigating climate change will actually help tackle other issues as well – so let’s please stick with the current scientific consensus!
DarkMagus
170 posts

Re: Not in England either..... 2 of 2
Jan 26, 2010, 11:47
CRU initial sponsors included British Petroleum, the Nuffield Foundation and Royal Dutch Shell. ( Michael Sanderson (2002), The history of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, p. 285, ISBN 9781852853365). Now aren't two of those rather large oil companies?

Can we put to bed the theory that critics of AGW are in the pay of oil companies, it's getting tiresome? Oil companies are on both sides and some say they are tending towards the pro-AGW camp these days, due to the lure of carbon trading and the money to be made there.


Still waiting for someone to debunk the analysis I linked to earlier that suggests cherry picking of data by NASA. I'd be interested either way!
jshell
264 posts

Edited Jan 27, 2010, 10:39
NASA and the cherries
Jan 27, 2010, 10:37
DarkMagus wrote:


Still waiting for someone to debunk the analysis I linked to earlier that suggests cherry picking of data by NASA. I'd be interested either way!



Just a quick bit of info as I'm gonna be offline for a couple of days: This is a very interesting read on data skewed upwards and NASA involvement: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_cru_was_but_the_ti.html

How do they get away with 1 thermometer North of 65deg Lat for the whole planet?
Merrick
Merrick
2148 posts

Re: Here we go again pt 2
Jan 27, 2010, 15:51
Further to the 'yet another long-discredited idea that 20 seconds googling could've sorted them out on';

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed.html
DarkMagus
170 posts

Re: NASA and the cherries
Jan 27, 2010, 18:32
jshell wrote:


How do they get away with 1 thermometer North of 65deg Lat for the whole planet?


I'm sure Merrick will be along soon to enlighten us!
jshell
264 posts

Re: Here we go again pt 2
Feb 01, 2010, 14:39
Merrick wrote:
Further to the 'yet another long-discredited idea that 20 seconds googling could've sorted them out on';

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed.html


And, the same New Scientist that was complicit in the 'Glacier Meltdown' scandal: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6991177.ece

utterly shameful...

New scientist article based on 'pure speculation', and then cited as SCIENCE in a ('peer-reviewed'-I-don't-think-so) IPCC report.... WTF?
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