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Climate-Cat's out of the Bag!
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DarkMagus
170 posts

Re: Hi Guys!
Dec 04, 2009, 13:15
Funny I thought I said you couldn't prove or disprove the exisence of god.

As for science, you can't prove beyond doubt. Theories are always up for refutation. That is the basis of scientific method. An example I gave elsewhere of Newton and gravity is a case in point. That was believed by many to be the end of the story, but further layers of complexity come to light as to what's going on. AGW appears to be pseudoscience at best. It's up there with archeology in the guesswork and assumptions required to draw conclusions. Only nobody is setting policy based on archeology.

If you think my experience is restricted to IT, you are mistaken. My use of models relates to the sciences in which I am trained and work. And not one of the wooly sciences or zoology I should add.

Here's an example of my understanding of data. Say I'm using temperature records in a computer model taken from sites that have seen a change in urbanisation and therefore ambient temperature due to local man made influences. How do I correct for that with any degree of certainty? Do I pick a number that fits the trend I want to see? How do I know I'm right? I can't. Also, say cloud cover is a bigger influence on temperature than CO2, how do I model cloud cover for the last 100 years say? Where's the accurate data for that? You have to make something up. Only you couch it in some nicer language. Getting the picture? We simply do not have reliable data over any significant period of time. When I do any measurements, everything is traceable to national standards & therefore has some chance of validity. Can you say that of the temperature measurements from around the world for the last few centuries? I doubt it. Then factor in weather stations moving & the fact they are measuring at individual points, not integrating over wide areas & the picture starts looking even more unreliable.
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