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Stop Nick Griffin
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Merrick
Merrick
2148 posts

Edited Jun 10, 2009, 10:06
Re: Stop Nick Griffin
Jun 10, 2009, 10:04
charlbury wrote:
Well I hate to say I was right


I'd hate to say you were right too, because it appears that you weren't.

As was clear, this was a guessing game. My guess was the Greens, yours was the LibDems.

I'm willing to bet there was a hefty chunk of personal bias in both our recommendations, but given the previous results, the polls for this time and the online calculator, I couldn't see how the LibDems were ever going to be a serious challenge to the BNP. And, indeed, they weren't.

In the North West, it turns out the greatest leverage was with neither the Greens or LibDems. It was widely reported on the night that a couple of thousand extra UKIP votes would've given them the final seat.

Using the results and the online calculator, and rather simplistically just adding extra to each party (instead of transferrng them from another) and not having any parties score below the BNP, it works out like this.

NORTH WEST

2,500 extra UKIP votes needed, or
5,000 Green
27,000 LibDem
60,000 Labour
95,000 Conservative

YORKSHIRE

10,000 Labour
16,000 Green
27,000 UKIP
61,000 Conservative
67,000 LibDem
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