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Julian Cope presents Head Heritage

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grufty jim
grufty jim
1978 posts

Re: no hidden agenda
Nov 07, 2001, 19:52
as a tangential 'aside' (i.e. nothing at all to do with the Caspian or Afghanistan specifically); i don't - as it happens - think the oil companies are all that worried about kyoto and future environmental legislation.

recent statements (which haven't received nearly as much publicity as they should have - probably because of the 'war' and all) by oil companies (first Shell and then ExxonMobil) have made me prick up my ears somewhat. Both companies (and this is far more significant, in my eyes, than BPs 'beyond Petroleum' publicity stunt) have indicated that they are considering massive corporate re-evaluation and self-assessment of future goals. the reason for this is, it is claimed, that they want to be friendlier to the planet and focus on renewables. just as you say.

well, call me a cynic, but i can't see an oil company voluntarily moving away from the oil business if there was still a lot of money in it. fear of kyoto? maybe, but... well, i kind of think that Big Oil fixed the last american elections to get anti-Kyoto Bush into power rather than pro-Kyoto Gore; they wanted to open up Alaska too, of course, and Gore would have held that up. if they don't have a problem rough-riding over the wishes of the american electorate, i suspect they don't concern themselves too much with international opinion or a bunch of activists... hell, Bush proved himself more than willing to unilaterally turn his back on at least three major international treaties within four months of taking office!

my belief (and this is moving into 'speculation' territory, though more and more facts i'm turning up seem to support it) is that the oil companies are starting to stop letting economists make all the decisions and are actually starting to listen to their geologists and engineers... many of whom are asking very serious questions about the ability of global oil production to meet global oil demand past the end of this decade.

there's some damn convincing reasons for believing that (though, ultimately the jury is still out), but if it is true, then the world is in for a very major shakeup before long - the day oil demand outstrips supply could well spell the beginning of the end for globalisation as we know it.

and as nice a thought as that might be; the dependency we have developed on oil is mind-boggling, and the effects of shortages will be nothing short of catastophic for us all.

(do please disassociate that from my caspian piece though. one is well-researched fact as best as i can assess ... the other is merely well-researched opinion).

g.jim.
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